Rex Ryan has a better chance of dropping another 50 pounds by the time the New York Jets report to training camp six weeks from Sunday than Darrelle Revis has of showing up if he doesn't have a new contract.
In other words, if the Revis vs. Jets standoff isn't resolved by the time veteran camp opens in Cortland, N.Y. on Aug. 1, I will be very surprised if Revis isn't a summertime holdout.
The injury risk is too great for Revis to play for just $1 million this season, when his guarantees don't kick in until next year. Revis has qualified to have the final two years (2011-2012) voided from his original six-year, $36 million rookie contract after this season. Then the New York Jets have the right to buy back them back for $5 million guaranteed in 2011 and $15 million guaranteed in 2012.
If Revis doesn't secure an extension with a sizable amount of guaranteed money, or if the Jets don't come up with a short-term solution, then he's going to be hanging out by himself on Revis Island while Ryan puts the Jets through two-a-days.
Perhaps a quick fix to get Revis into camp is jumping the $1 million he's scheduled to earn in 2010 to about $10 million, the market value for an elite corner. But without getting additional years, it's not likely the Jets would give Revis more money. But it would enhance their Super Bowl chances.
This could get ugly and nasty - as if Revis faking a hamstring injury in minicamp last week and embarrassing Ryan wasn't bad enough.
Here's the immediate problem for Revis:
- If he suffers a career-threatening injury in training camp or during the season, the Jets could elect not to exercise the buybacks, making Revis a damaged-goods free agent. Revis is good friends with ex-Jets running back Leon Washington and he viewed up close how one play can change a player's life. The Giants' Domenik Hixon is gone for the year after he blew out his ACL in a non-contact drill last week.
If Revis shows up and plays this season under his present contract, he will be gambling he can stay injury-free. But even then, he will be playing the next three years for a total of $21 million. The $7 million average is not even half of Nnamdi Asomghua's three-year, $45.3 million deal in Oakland and Revis is determined to be the highest-paid corner in the NFL.
- If Revis doesn't show up for camp, he can be fined about $16,000 a day and the guaranteed language in the $20 million in 2011-2012 disappears. If he doesn't show up, I believe this could go on for awhile. I don't see him losing his nerve when it becomes late August, with the Sept. 13 Monday Night opener against the Ravens fast approaching. Revis held out of camp 21 days until his rookie deal got done in 2007 when he had not proven anything. Now he's the best corner in the league.
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