Running back Matt Forte

Early this summer, I was high on Knowshon Moreno  as a possible breakout runner as he showed his big play burst in OTA's. Moreno attributed his lack of big plays in his rookie season to not trusting his instincts and running to a gap he saw open up.

Unfortunately, as many fantasy owners know by now, Moreno suffered a nasty hamstring injury in camp, and that can be a killer for running backs. Just look at Matt Forte last season, he injured his hammy in the summer and didn't play the same in year two.

Now, I will say in Forte's situation, he also suffered a knee injury to begin the regular season, so maybe there's some hope left for Moreno.

Still, just seeing Moreno going in Auction mock drafts at around $20 shows you fantasy owners don't believe he's ready for a breakout season.

If you can purchase Moreno at this price as your flex-play option, I think that could still be a very nice move for your squad. Just make sure you get some decent depth on the bench if he can't bounce back from his injury.

There aren't many national experts picking the Bears for a Super Bowl trip, so it's no surprise the fantasy football folks also don't seem enamored with the team. Running back Matt Forte, once touted as a top-five pick, fell to No. 55 in Pro Football Weekly's recent fantasy football rankings -- 24th at his position.

''I don't play fantasy football,'' said Forte, who nonetheless is aware he disappointed a lot of people who do by following his 2008 rookie season with a sophomore slump. ''I just worry about playing regular football, just going out there and trying to win games.''

One thing Forte isn't worried about these days is his starting job, despite the fact the team paid $7 million in guaranteed money on Chester Taylor's four-year, $12.5 million deal. Forte remains entrenched as the starter, with Taylor expected to get plenty of chances. Coach Lovie Smith knows how well a two-back system can work. Pushed by Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones helped key a trip to the Super Bowl in Smith's contract year of 2006.

''You have to have team players at the running back position who know you need two to make it through a season and the guy who is not starting will get his reps,'' Smith said. ''Matt Forte and Chester Taylor ... are guys who know. It's not like they are wondering what will happen. Both guys will get enough plays.''

There won't be the tension between Forte and Taylor that simmered between Jones and Benson. After all, it was Jones who slugged Benson during a drill in practice that season to encourage the younger player to start paying attention. Benson was furious that the coaching staff let the incident go, to the point he complained bitterly to a friend in the locker room after the comeback victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

The running back position has been one of the more frustrating ones for the Bears during Smith's regime. Jones once was described as ''the heart and soul of the offense'' by former quarterback Rex Grossman, but that didn't stop the team from pushing Benson after he was selected with the No. 4 overall pick in 2005. The Bears shopped Jones before the 2006 season and finally traded him after the Super Bowl. Garrett Wolfe was selected in the third round of the 2007 draft, and Forte was taken in the second round in 2008 after it became obvious that Benson didn't care enough about being a Bear.

Throw in Taylor's big-money deal, and you see the Bears have invested a ton of draft picks and money into a position where they effectively created a problem that didn't exist. Regardless, it was obvious that Forte was a breath of fresh air when he arrived.

He set rookie franchise records for rushing yards (1,238) and yards from scrimmage (1,715), but he might have been overused, finishing with 316 carries and 63 receptions for 379 touches. Twelve of those plays ended in touchdowns, but the majority of the rest ended in violent collisions.

Was Forte's sophomore slump the result of a workhorse rookie season? According to research by Football Outsiders in 2008, running backs who get 370 carries in a season invariably suffer a major injury or a profound loss of effectiveness the next season. The study found that players with 300 to 389 carries in a season will see their yardage decline by 15 percent the next year, and those in the 370 or higher range suffer a 35 percent decline.